* Polymarket has rapidly become a hub for betting on the U.S.-Iran conflict, with traders wagering on ceasefire dates, regime change and potential U.S. ground involvement.
* A contract on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaving power by March 31 drew $45 million in volume, while a long-running market on whether the U.S. would strike Iran has amassed $529 million, making it one of Polymarket's largest ever.
* Onchain analysts have flagged six wallets that made about $1.2 million by correctly betting on a Feb. 28 U.S. strike on Iran, intensifying scrutiny of potential insider trading as Polymarket promotes its markets as a source of real-time geopolitical insight.

* Nvidia beat fourth-quarter expectations, posting revenue of over $68 billion.
* Shares rose 1.4% during Wednesday’s session and moved as much as 4%, before giving up some of their after-hours gains.
* Bitcoin remained near $69,000, while AI-linked crypto tokens TAO, ICP and AI-focused bitcoin mining stocks saw modest gains after the results.

* Stripe is considering a bid for all or parts of PayPal's business, Bloomberg reported.
* A deal would marry two payment processing firms with growing interest in stablecoins and crypto rails.
* Already higher this week on buyout rumors, PYPL shares rose another 7% on the news.

* Laurore Ltd., a little-known entity, disclosed a position of about $436 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), triggering speculation about the identity of a new bitcoin ETF holder.
* Hong Kong registry filings show the IBIT stake is linked through director Zhang Hui, a Mainland China passport holder who is also the sole director of Avecamour Advice Limited, a Hong Kong company owned by a British Virgin Islands entity.
* A spokesperson said the ultimate beneficial owner “prefers to keep a low profile” and that the position “reflects personal investment conviction,” declining to disclose further ownership details.

* Quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin's cryptography could expose roughly 7 million coins, including about 1 million attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, worth an estimated $440 billion at current prices.
* The Bitcoin community is split between preserving strict neutrality and immutability—letting quantum attackers claim vulnerable coins—and intervening through protocol changes such as burning or migrating at-risk coins to quantum-resistant addresses.
* While some experts warn that recent research may accelerate the timeline for breaking current encryption, others argue the threat remains distant and can be addressed through engineering upgrades rather than drastic governance changes.

* The White House negotiators at the latest meeting urged bankers to allow for limited stablecoin rewards that won't threaten their deposits business, according to sources familiar with the talks.
* The banking representatives at Thursday meeting were said to actively work on language to that end, though a final draft will still have to be circulated and weighed by the banks.

* Two major Abu Dhabi investment firms, Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, increased their holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025 as bitcoin’s price fell.
* Mubadala lifted its IBIT stake to 12.7 million shares and Al Warda to 8.2 million shares.
* Together, they held a combined position that exceeded $1 billion at the end of 2025 but has since declined to just over $800 million amid further bitcoin losses in 2026.

* Investors are more bearish on the U.S. dollar than ever, a positioning that has historically been a bullish tailwind for bitcoin because a weaker dollar tends to support risk assets.
* Since early 2025, bitcoin has developed an unusually positive correlation with the dollar, with their 90-day correlation reaching 0.60 even as both the dollar index and BTC have fallen.
* If this new link holds, a further dollar slide could hurt bitcoin, while a sharp dollar short squeeze and rebound could instead lift BTC.

* X is set to allow users to trade stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timelines.
* Users will be able to interact with ticker symbols in posts and execute trades within the app, the company's head of product said.
* X Money, the company’s in-house payments system, is preparing for an external beta launch within one to two months.

* The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has set its inaugural list for the Innovation Advisory Committee, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.
* The group will have a role in steering future regulations as the U.S. derivatives watchdog takes on oversight duties in the crypto markets.

* Input Output Global founder Charles Hoskinson said Midnight, a long-awaited privacy-focused blockchain, will launch in the final week of March as a partner chain to Cardano.
* Midnight allows users to keep transactions private by default while sharing specific data with authorized parties when required.
* A new Midnight City Simulation, opening to the public on Feb. 26, is designed to test the blockchain’s ability to generate and process proofs at scale under real-world-like transaction loads.

* This latest White House meeting on the Clarity Act didn't produce the hoped-for compromise, with sources saying the bankers arrived with a "principles" document calling for a total ban on stablecoin yield.
* Representatives of the top U.S. banks met across a table from negotiators from the crypto industry, and they were under instructions from President Donald Trump's crypto advisers to find common ground on the Senate's market structure legislation.
* While the crypto industry's statements were upbeat about the potential for progress, the banking industry issued a statement without detail on a way forward.

* The recent drama over bitcoin's slide was made more puzzling over the weekend as the markets sought to figure out a rumor shared by CNBC's Jim Cramer that President Donald Trump would start filling his bitcoin reserve if the asset drops to $60,000.
* The situation with the reserve, though, is that it hasn't been established, and it probably needs congressional action to do so.
* Trump administration officials have said the government isn't planning on spending taxpayer funds to buy crypto, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that he has no authority to bail out bitcoin.

* Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson revealed over $3 billion in unrealized losses during the crypto downturn, emphasizing that founders are not immune to market effects.
* He stressed long-term commitment prioritizing building decentralized systems over short-term price changes.
* Hoskinson intends to maintain his positions and views the selloff as a transition for financial systems, citing Cardano projects like Starstream and Midnight focused on data integrity and privacy.

* Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) moved 1,318 BTC worth about $86.9 million over 10 hours to a mix of counterparties and custody venues, onchain data from Arkham shows.
* The largest transfers went to credit and trading firm Two Prime, which received more than 660 BTC, while additional chunks were sent to a BitGo address and a fresh wallet.
* The timing of the transfers is drawing scrutiny from traders wary of forced miner selling in a volatile, thin market, though the moves could also reflect routine collateral or treasury management rather than imminent spot sales.

* The Super Bowl of Blockchain, the World Cup of Web3.
* Will gather from over 100 countries to attend Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
* Assets managed by the finance giants gathered at Consensus 2025.

* BitMine Immersion chairman Tom Lee defended the company's more than $6 billion in unrealized ether losses as an expected outcome of its long-term ethereum treasury strategy rather than a failure of execution.
* Lee said BitMine is structured to track and ultimately outperform ether over a full market cycle, comparing it to an index-style product and arguing that paper losses are a feature of its approach during crypto downturns.
* The company has continued to accumulate ETH, now holding about 4.24 million coins and earning staking revenue, even as Lee warns that a broader crypto deleveraging phase could pressure markets into early 2026.

* Elon Musk's SpaceX has acquired his AI company xAI.
* "Space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale," wrote Musk, announcing the deal.
* Bloomberg reported the combined company is expected to IPO at a $1.25 trillion valuation.

* Bitcoin's drop below $76,037 per coin has put Strategy's bitcoin position slightly underwater, but has not created any immediate financial stress for the firm.
* Strategy's 712,647 unencumbered bitcoin and flexible options for managing its $8.2 billion in convertible debt mean it faces no forced selling or near-term solvency risk.
* The main impact of the price decline is to make new share issuance less attractive, slowing Strategy's ability to buy more bitcoin without diluting shareholders, as its stock now trades at a discount to its bitcoin holdings.

* WTI and Brent oil prices have surged by 12% this month.
* Higher oil prices could add to inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates rapidly.
* BTC bulls are hopeful that rate cuts would arrive soon, lifting the market higher.

* Analysts said USAT, the U.S.-focused stablecoin by Tether, could become the first credible domestic competitor to Circle's USDC token.
* USAT is "a threat to USDC" and could gain an edge through institutional partners and global USDT connectivity, Crypto is Macro Now's Noelle Acheson said.
* ClearStreet's Owen Lau called USAT “a manageable risk” for Circle, and noted potential "cannibalization" risk between Tether's two tokens.

* BitMine acquired 40,302 ETH last week, its biggest purchase of 2026 so far.
* The purchase followed shareholder approval to expand the firm’s authorized share count.

* What's in all this congressional action for you? Potentially a fully regulated infrastructure for your crypto holdings, which could mean more safety with less outlaw vibe.
* In the final outcome of these months (and years) of lobbying and lawmaking, crypto would become a node of the established U.S. financial system, though failure is still an option.
* Winning the government's stamp of approval could drive more investment that raises the value of existing holdings, though rewards for investors may be under pressure in the latest negotiations.

* Precious metals surged during U.S. afternoon trading Thursday, sending gold to a new record of $4,930 per ounce.
* Bitcoin continued to severely underperform, slumping back to just above $89,000.
* Bianco Research’s Jim Bianco suggested bitcoin's adoption narrative is losing power, while Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas said BTC is doing just fine on a longer time frame.

* The Senate Banking Committee has indefinitely postponed work on its crypto market structure bill after Coinbase withdrew from the process, and it is not expected to resume for at least several weeks.
* While the Senate Agriculture Committee released its own market structure bill, industry insiders worry it may be a partisan measure without sufficient Democratic support, which could hinder its progress in the full Senate.

* Crypto prices tumbled in a broad global sell-off, with bitcoin sliding below $90,000 and altcoins hit hardest as investors fled riskier assets.
* The rout followed President Donald Trump's renewed push for U.S. control of Greenland and threats of tariffs on European nations, which stoked fears of trade conflict and policy instability.
* A simultaneous spike in global bond yields and a rush into safe havens like gold underscored how rising macro stress and crowded bullish positioning combined to trigger more than $1 billion in crypto liquidations.

Overview

2025 has been a year of divergence between structural progress and market performance. While regulatory clarity and institutional validation have reached new milestones, price performance has stagnated. L1 tokens are a primary example, broadly underperforming despite a backdrop of accelerating political approvals and expanding institutional products.

* U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen about $1.2 billion in net inflows, reversing December outflows.
* The new inflow is a sign that institutional investors are moving away from the usual "cash-and-carry" arbitrage trade and are betting more on prices rising.
* Data shows that hedge funds have been cutting the short futures positions typically used in arbitrage strategies.

* The U.S. Senate is putting off its first significant vote on the sweeping crypto regulation bill that's been under intense negotiations.
* Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said stakeholders were continuing to work on the bill.

* A list of amendments has circulated that would make potential changes to the crypto market structure legislation that's planned for consideration in a Senate Banking Committee hearing this week.
* The amendments would tackle more than a hundred items, including stablecoin yield, government corruption and software developer protections.

* Hoskinson criticized the Trump administration for launching meme coins and politicizing crypto.
* He said mismanagement and lack of clear regulation undercut bipartisan progress on legislation.
* Hoskinson warned crypto now risks being seen as corrupt and linked to partisan agendas.

* Brighty customers are using cryptocurrency to purchase real estate in destinations such as the UK, France, Malta, Cyprus, and Andorra.
* The size of these transactions varies from around $500,000 to a maximum of about $2.5 million, thus far.

* JPMorgan plans to expand its JPM Coin deposit token to multiple blockchain networks, including the privacy-focused Canton Network.
* The bank aims to create a regulated, interoperable digital money system for near-instant institutional payments.
* JPM Coin, representing U.S. dollar deposits, is currently available to institutional clients on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Base.

* Crypto yields have compressed due to deeper liquidity and arbitrage, with ETH staking and USDC lending returns now similar to traditional financial products.
* Bitcoin and Ether saw slight declines as Asia's trading day began, while gold prices fell due to technical selling pressure.
* Flowdesk suggests future opportunities in crypto may lie in complex financial products like bespoke credit and hybrid structures.

* Bitcoin's correlation with the Japanese yen has reached a record high.
* Both BTC and the yen took a beating in final months of 2025, with sell-offs in both running out of steam after mid-December.
* The tight correlation weakens BTC's appeal as portfolio diversifier.

* Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicted Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026.
* Lee forecasted a volatile but ultimately positive year for crypto markets in 2026, with a strong second half.
* He projected the S&P 500 to hit 7,700 by the end of 2026, driven by resilient corporate earnings and AI-driven productivity gains.

* In 2025, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin became more balanced, with neutral reporting surpassing negative stories.
* The shift in narrative was driven by the exhaustion of earlier critiques rather than increased enthusiasm for Bitcoin.
* AI emerged as the dominant topic in media, overshadowing Bitcoin and driving more significant sentiment swings.

* Fed officials have grown increasingly focused on whether the financial system has sufficient cash to function smoothly, even if interest rates remain steady.
* The December FOMC minutes show concern that short-term funding stress can emerge quietly and trigger sudden volatility.
* The minutes outline steps aimed at preventing cash shortages before seasonal pressures intensify in early 2026.

* Representative Maxine Waters, the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, called for a hearing with Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins to discuss his crypto moves and other topics.
* Her party has a strong chance to take back the House of Representatives majority in 2026, potentially moving her back into the spot as committee chair.

* Coinbase Institutional argues that the crypto market’s behavior is being reshaped by structural forces rather than traditional boom-and-bust cycles.
* The firm highlights several fast-growing areas where activity is accelerating despite tighter financial conditions.
* Coinbase believes these shifts could define how crypto markets function in 2026 and beyond.

* Hong Kong plans to introduce legislative proposals to regulate virtual asset dealers and custodians in 2026.
* The proposals aim to create a licensing framework under the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance.
* The SFC is consulting on extending oversight to virtual asset advisers and managers, with comments due by Jan. 23.

* A fake press release claimed that Circle, the issuer of USDC, had launched a new platform called CircleMetals, offering tokenized gold and silver trading.
* The release, distributed on Christmas Eve, used Circle branding and quoted executives, but was later confirmed to be fake by the company.
* The fake platform, which remains live, appears to be a scam, with links to a swap platform and promises of rewards, but there is no evidence to suggest that the tokenized gold and silver tokens actually exist.

* Aave's community members and participants have become sharply divided in a debate over control of the protocol’s brand and related assets, intensifying an ongoing dispute over the relationship between the DAO and Aave Labs.
* The debate has drawn outsized attention because it cuts to a central question facing many of crypto’s largest protocols: the tension between decentralized governance and the centralized teams that often drive execution.

* Coinbase is acquiring The Clearing Company, a startup with experience in prediction markets, to help grow its newly introduced platform.
* The deal brings in a team with specialized experience building event-based trading systems, including veterans from Polymarket and Kalshi.
* The acquisition is part of Coinbase's plan to become an "Everything Exchange", offering a wide range of trading options, including novel cryptocurrencies, perpetual futures contracts, stocks, and prediction markets.

* Galaxy Research, the research arm of Galaxy Digital (GLXY), says overlapping macroeconomic and market risks make bitcoin unusually difficult to forecast in 2026.
* The firm says that options pricing and volatility trends indicate that bitcoin is maturing into a more macro-like asset, rather than a high-growth trade.
* Galaxy maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting that bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

* Bitcoin and ether surged past key technical levels, driven by gains in Asian equities and easing global financial conditions.
* Japan's interest rate hike to a three-decade high was smoothly absorbed by markets, boosting Asian stocks and weakening the yen.
* Softer U.S. inflation data bolstered risk sentiment, with expectations rising for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* Grayscale says the crypto asset class remains in a sustained bull market heading into 2026, supported by macro demand and regulatory clarity.
* The firm outlines 10 investing themes spanning stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi lending, staking and next-generation blockchain infrastructure.
* Grayscale does not expect quantum computing or digital asset treasuries to have a material influence on crypto markets next year.

* The Senate will not hold a market structure markup hearing this month, pushing any progress toward a new crypto law to next year.
* It's unclear how quickly lawmakers might be able to resume negotiations in the new year.
* Sticking points from Democrats include concerns about financial stability, market integrity and ethics.

* Barclays forecasts lower crypto trading volumes in 2026, with no clear catalysts to revive market activity.
* Spot market slowdowns pose revenue challenges for retail-focused platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, the bank said.
* Regulatory clarity, including pending market structure legislation, could shape long-term market growth despite near-term headwinds.

* Democrats shared a response to Republicans outlining their continuing priorities for a crypto market structure bill, which they said was intended to "reach an agreement and proceed towards a mark-up."
* The document laid out concerns with financial stability, market integrity and public officials' ability to trade and profit off of crypto, echoing concerns laid out in a framework Democrats shared in September.
* The Senate is running out of time in the Congressional calendar to hold a markup hearing — a key step toward progressing the bill — before 2025 ends.

* Bitcoin soared back over $94,000 in morning U.S. action Tuesday.
* The gains came one day of the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut.
* One analyst took note of "deeply defensive" positioning by traders as possibly setting the stage for the bounce.

* Bitcoin steadied near $90,400 after a turbulent November, with Europe leading the sell-off.
* Strategy acquired 10,624 BTC, increasing its holdings to 660,600 BTC, amid concerns of potential index removal.
* The broader market held its recent rebound, though liquidity remained thin ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.

What to know:

* Impending BOJ rate hike largely priced in; Japanese bond yields near multi-decade highs.
* Speculators maintain net bullish positions in the yen, limiting scope for sudden yen strength.
* BOJ tightening may contribute to sustained upward pressure on global yields, impacting risk sentiment.

What to know:

* A new bridge connecting Base, the layer 2 incubated by Coinbase, and the Solana blockchain is now live on mainnet, enabling asset transfers between the two ecosystems.
* The bridge, secured by Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol, allows users to trade and interact with Solana-based tokens on Base-based decentralized applications.
* The open-source bridge on GitHub enables developers to integrate cross-chain support, marking a step toward interconnected blockchains and "always-on" capital markets, with more chains expected to be linked in the future.

What to know:

* Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s teased a switch from orange dots to green dots in what's become his routine Sunday X post.
* The move suggests possible new news coming on Monday — the day when the company typically announces the previous week's bitcoin purchases.
* Strategy CEO Phong Le earlier this weekend said the company could sell bitcoin if mNAV falls below 1 to fund dividends on its perpetual preferred equity.

What to know:

* Upbit has suspended digital asset withdrawals after detecting irregular activity involving Solana network tokens.
* Approximately $40 million worth of tokens were transferred to unauthorized wallets, but Upbit will cover all losses.
* The exchange is working with law enforcement and has frozen assets worth about 12 billion won related to the incident.

What to know:

* Amazon announced a $50 billion investment in AI and supercomputing infrastructure in the U.S.
* Markets are rallying across the board, with bitcoin retaking the $87,000 level and the Nasdaq rising more than 2%.
* Bitcoin miners, many of whom have shifted business models to focus on AI/HPC, are surging double-digit percentages in some cases.

What to know:

* Strategy (MSTR) stock has dropped 43% as institutional crypto investors use it to hedge losses amid limited on-chain options.
* Tom Lee of Bitmine Immersion says MSTR acts as a proxy for bitcoin due to its liquidity and large BTC holdings, making it the market’s preferred hedge.
* Crypto market liquidity remains weak post-October crash, forcing traders to short MSTR in the absence of robust crypto-native hedging tools.

What to know:

* Nvidia posted strong third quarter earnings alongside better than expected fourth quarter guidance.
* For the moment, the news has calmed jittery markets, with bitcoin climbing back over $90,000 from the day's low near $88,000.
* AI-linked crypto tokens surged as Nvidia reinforced its role at the core of the artificial intelligence boom.

What to know:

* Kraken has raised $800M to expand blockchain-based financial services, with $200M from Citadel Securities.
* The raise values Kraken at $20B and signals deeper ties between crypto firms and traditional finance giants.
* With fresh capital, Kraken plans global expansion and new products spanning trading, payments and tokenized assets.

What to know:

* BitMine Immersion Technologies acquired over 54,000 ether worth approximately $173 million, bringing its total holdings to nearly 3.6 million ETH.
* The company increased its cash reserves to $607 million.
* Chairman Thomas Lee attributed the current crypto price weakness to reduced market liquidity following the October crash, but argued the cycle hasn't topped yet.

What to know:

* Jeff Dorman said Strategy’s structure makes forced bitcoin sales unlikely, citing Saylor’s board control and debt terms.
* Peter Schiff predicted Strategy will “eventually go bankrupt” and challenged Saylor to debate him publicly.
* Strategy shares are down 33.42% year to date, compared with a 0.4% gain for bitcoin, and trade near a diluted mNAV multiple of 1.06x, according to StrategyTracker.

What to know:

* Self raised $9M from Greenfield Capital, SoftBank and others.
* The protocol provides zero-knowledge powered, privacy-preserving identity verification.
* The company introduced a points program rewarding verified user activity.

What to know:

* Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said he launched the platform alone and with little money, using blockchain to build a global market from his bedroom.
* He argued that prediction markets offer better information than polls or sportsbooks by pricing real-world outcomes through peer-to-peer trading.
* Coplan sees future use cases for Polymarket in public policy, insurance, and AI-driven forecasting, calling it a new format for understanding risk and uncertainty.

What to know:

* Former BlackRock executive and co-CEO of Sharplink, Joseph Chalom, says Ethereum has the trust, security, and liquidity that Wall Street needs.
* At Sharplink, Chalom is staking billions in ETH and testing restaking strategies to unlock additional yield.
* He sees Ethereum as the long-term infrastructure for global finance, not just a blockchain for crypto assets.

What to know:

* The Senate Agriculture Committee published its draft crypto market structure bill, a necessary step as the Senate inches toward its own version of the House's Clarity Act.
* That committee's bill will need to be combined with its Senate Banking Committee counterpart before the Senate can advance the legislation, a process which may yet take months.

What to know:

* Ledger, a French company known for cryptocurrency hardware wallets, is considering an IPO in New York or a private financing round next year, according to Financial Times.
* CEO Pascal Gauthier emphasized New York's importance for crypto financing, citing increased hacking incidents as a driver for secure custody solutions.

What to know:

* X will keep Chat inside theX app, but will also ship a standalone X Chat in the coming months.
* Musk compared X Chat's peer-to-peer (P2P) encryption approach to bitcoin and said there are no advertising hooks.
* In-app Chat is currently in beta for Premium X users, offering text messaging, as well as file and media sharing. Audio and video calls are planned for future release.

What to know:

* Ripple, Mastercard, WebBank and Gemini are piloting stablecoin-based settlement for credit card transactions using RLUSD on the XRP Ledger.
* The test could mark one of the first times a regulated U.S. bank uses a public blockchain and stablecoin to settle fiat card payments.
* RLUSD has surpassed $1 billion in circulation and is regulated under New York’s Trust Charter.

What to know:

* Donut Labs raised $22 million across pre-seed and seed rounds in just six months, backed by BITKRAFT, Makers Fund, Sky9 Capital and Hack VC.
* The firm is developing Donut Browser, an AI-driven "agentic" browser that automates crypto trading, risk analysis and on-chain strategy execution.
* The product has attracted over 160,000 users on its waitlist, signaling strong demand for AI-native trading tools amid rising DeFi volumes.

What to know:

* Bitcoin's price drop from $112,000 to below $106,000 led to over $1.27 billion in leveraged futures liquidations.
* Long traders accounted for nearly 90% of the liquidations, with $1.14 billion in bullish bets erased.
* The largest liquidation was a $33.95 million BTC-USDT long on HTX, as Hyperliquid led platforms with $374 million in forced closures.

What to know:

* BitMine Immersion Technologies increased its ether holdings to nearly 3.4 million tokens, representing 2.8% of the total supply.
* The company's total crypto, cash, and equity holdings are now valued at $13.7 billion.
* BitMine's acquisition comes amid a challenging period for digital asset treasuries, with many firms' stock struggling to maintain their asset values and pivoting to buyback.